Blaine Higgs
Progressive Conservative

The 2024 New Brunswick general election is scheduled to be held on or before October 21, 2024, according to the Legislative Assembly Act of 2017 which states that an election should be held every four years on the third Monday in October; the election still must be held on a Monday if called sooner. It will be held to select 49 members of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick of the 61st New Brunswick legislature.

Background

Defections and de-registration of the People's Alliance

On March 30, 2022, Kris Austin and Michelle Conroy announced their departures from the People's Alliance to join the Progressive Conservatives. Austin said that the result of the 2020 provincial election, when the party lost one of its three seats, had prompted him to undertake some “soul-searching”, but that he believed he had changed politics in New Brunswick. Both Austin and Conroy stated that they believed they could better represent their ridings from within government.

Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs expressed excitement about his party's new MLAs, but reiterated the party's support for official bilingualism when questioned about the People's Alliance's previous stances on the issue. The acceptance of MLAs who had expressed anti-bilingual opinions was criticized by the Acadian Society of New Brunswick, an organization promoting the rights of francophones in the province, when their president Alexandre Cédric Doucet said that he was happy to see the Alliance dissolve, but that it was "a sad day" for the Progressive Conservatives.

The Chief Electoral Officer of New Brunswick confirmed that the Peoples Alliance of New Brunswick would be deregistered as a provincial party on March 31, 2022. In April 2022, interim leader Rick DeSaulniers and party announced plans to re-register as a party. Elections New Brunswick confirmed the party was re-registered in May 2022.

Current standings

Standings in the 60th Legislature of New Brunswick

Affiliation		Assembly members
		2020 election results	Current
	Progressive Conservative	27	25
	Liberal	17	16
	Green	3	3
	People's Alliance	2	0
	Independent	0	1
Vacant			4
Total members		49	45
Total seats		49	49

Summary of seat changes

Changes in seats held (2020–present)
Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin	August 17, 2021	Jake Stewart	█ PC	Resigned to run in Miramichi—Grand Lake in the 2021 federal election; elected.	June 20, 2022	Mike Dawson	█ PC
Miramichi Bay-Neguac		Lisa Harris	█ Liberal	Resigned to run in Miramichi—Grand Lake in the 2021 federal election; defeated.		Réjean Savoie	█ PC
Fredericton-Grand Lake	March 30, 2022	Kris Austin	█ People's Allnc.	Changed affiliation, resigning as People's Alliance leader and announcing his intention to deregister the party.			█ PC
Miramichi		Michelle Conroy	█ People's Allnc.	Changed affiliation.			█ PC
Fredericton West-Hanwell	October 16, 2022	Dominic Cardy	█ PC	Expelled from the PC caucus having resigned his ministerial role.			█ Independent
Dieppe	October 21, 2022	Roger Melanson	█ Liberal	Resigned to head to the private sector.	April 24, 2023	Richard Losier	█ Liberal
Restigouche-Chaleur	November 27, 2022	Daniel Guitard	█ Liberal	Resigned to run for Mayor of Belle-Baie in 2022 elections; elected.		Marco LeBlanc	█ Liberal
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore	November 27, 2022	Denis Landry	█ Liberal	Resigned to run for Mayor of Hautes-Terres in 2022 elections; elected.		Susan Holt	█ Liberal
Saint John Harbour	February 8, 2024	Arlene Dunn	█ PC	Resigned.
Portland-Simonds	April 30, 2024	Trevor Holder	█ PC	Resigned.
Hampton	April 30, 2024	Gary Crossman	█ PC	Resigned.
Albert	June 20, 2024	Mike Holland	█ PC	Resigned (after final legislative session).

Issues

Education

New Brunswick has been experiencing major education shortcomings during the 2020s, with the province experiencing massive shortages in teachers and school psychologists, along with school bus drivers in some areas. Schools throughout the province have also reported exceptionally low child literacy rates, with a 2021–22 report concluding that literacy standards were not met by around 40% of the province's fourth grade students, the lowest it has been in 18 years. Kelly Lamrock, the New Brunswick Child and Youth advocate, further reported that child literacy rates had declined by 29% over the past decade. After being released in November 2023, the 2022–23 report for fourth grade student literacy rates showed further decline, with 43.4% scoring "below appropriate achievement" after being assessed for English reading.

In late 2023, the New Brunswick Teachers' Association (NBTA) called for the provincial government regarding concerns raised from a NBTA survey on its members. Concerns noted "understaffed classrooms and overcrowded buildings, with uncertified community members, people without without a bachelor of education, sometimes taking the place of actual teachers because of shortages." Many of the 2,916 survey participants reported teaching in overcrowded and poorly ventilated schools, with half also experiencing verbal and physical abuse. Those who called for these issues to be addressed included Liberal leader Susan Holt as well as Kevin Arseneau, a Green MLA for Kent North.

In May 2024, the NBTA projected over 1,200 anglophone teachers that will be eligible for retirement within the next five years, with Peter Lagacy, the NBTA president, adding that this is "an alarming number when we look at how many we have coming into the system."

Staff shortages

New Brunswick's public school system has been notably experiencing shortages in teachers, school psychologists and, in certain areas, bus drivers.

While proposing changes for Policy 713, Higgs proposed for "extra counsellors, extra support." According to figures from November 2023, however, the number of school psychologists dropped; out of a total of 28 'full-time equivalent' school psychologist positions filled throughout the province, only six served the province's English school system of approximately 73,000 students.

School busing shortcomings

An audit which took place between January and February in 2024 concluded that the provincial Department of Education "lacks oversight on school bus safety and driver requirements." Using a sample size of 65 bus drivers out of a total of around 1,300, the audit reported that 46% of New Brunswick's school bus drivers had ineligible licensing requirements. Additionally, 20% were hired without checking for criminal records, and further percentages of bus drivers had no evidence of bus training (37%) and first aid training (42%). The audit also conducted vehicle inspections on a number of buses, with 45% having deficiencies. Francine Landry, the Liberal MLA for Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston, criticized the provincial government led by Higgs for "touting their record on keeping children safe, while failing to fulfil the most basic requirements for doing so." Education Minister Bill Hogan responded, saying that "clearly there's some work to be done in that area in making sure that they're inspected on time."

Policy 713

Policy 713, a provincial education policy which sets minimum requirements for public schools and districts in the province related to individuals identifying and perceived as LGBTQIA2S+, became the subject of massive debate following a 2023 decision made to review and ultimately revise the policy by the Progressive Conservative-led government under Higgs and Bill Hogan, the Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development. In the aftermath of its revision, a third of the Progressive Conservative caucus members elected under Higgs have either resigned or announced that they would not seek re-election, with some criticizing Higgs' leadership and highlighting a growing disconnect between their personal beliefs and the party's stance. The revision has led the government to becoming in legal disputes with its education departments as well as with the Canadian Civil Liberties Association, who filed a lawsuit against the government, citing violations against the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms and New Brunswick's human rights and education acts. The issue has been the subject of widespread coverage and dispute, and has been covered by major news publications including The Washington Post, The New York Times, and BBC.

Lindsay Jones of The Globe And Mail called the Policy 713 dispute as having "emerged as perhaps the key issue in the next election."

Healthcare

Healthcare in New Brunswick has been described as being in a "state of chaos," with hospitals throughout the province experiencing an overcapacity of patients, excessively long waiting times, and health workers experiencing burnout. During a February 2023 press conference, Blaine Higgs stated that "if every doctor in our province took two or three more patients a week, we wouldn't have a backlog." In an Angus Reid survey that recorded Canadians' satisfaction with how their province is dealing with healthcare, New Brunswick recorded the largest drop in satisfaction rate compared to rates surveyed at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a rate of just 11 percent, compared to a previous rate of 42 percent.

Following overcrowding at the Dr. Everett Chalmers Regional Hospital emergency room at the start of 2024, Green leader David Coon called for "immediate changes" as well as for the government to increase funding.

On May 28, 2024, a CUPE Local 1292-sponsored leaders' debate covering the topic of healthcare was aired on Rogers TV; Blaine Higgs, Susan Holt and David Coon were invited to participate, though Higgs declined to attend.

According to Rob McKee, the Liberal health critic, 160,000 people in New Brunswick, or roughly 20 percent of the population, do not have a family doctor or nurse practitioner as of late May 2024. The numbers were disputed by Bruce Fitch, the Minister of Health.

During the final session of the 60th legislature held on June 7, 2024, Higgs and Holt clashed during question period; one of the topics included the funding spent on travel nurses, amounted to nearly CA$174 million, which was revealed to have been "partly mismanaged" according to a report by the auditor general.

Housing

Since 2019, housing affordability has nearly doubled in New Brunswick. In home prices, the province marked the highest percentage of increases compared to the rest of the Canadian provinces and territories. New Brunswick has also seen major increases in homeless within its communities and cities, with Fredericton, Saint John, and Moncton collectively experiencing an 80% increase in homelessness between 2021 and 2023. Housing critics have claimed that "landlords have almost all the power" in the province.

Both the Liberal and Green parties have attempted to implement rent regulation in the province, with the right to housing being highlighted by the Green Party legislative members, whether to consider it a human right or to push for rural area housing rights. During a legislative session on November 20, 2020, held shortly after the opening of the 60th legislature, Green Party leader David Coon introduced Bill 18, which would have made changes to the Residential Tenancies Act, including a cap on annual rent increases as well as ensuring that "rent can only be raised once a year for a tenant and not in their first year." At the time, New Brunswick was the only province that allowed for landlords to make multiple increases on rent each year. Coon added that "we need to ensure that tenants who cannot afford large increases in their rents are not left out in the cold without housing this winter." After six months of debate, the bill was ultimately rejected after all Progressive Conservative and People's Alliance MLAs unanimously voted against it. The New Brunswick Coalition for Tenants Rights, who had criticized the proposed bill for "not going far enough," expressed disappointment in the government decision.

In March 2022, the government introduced a temporary 3.8% rent cap, set to expire at the end of the year. Opposition parties soon afterwards called for an extension on this cap, while it was opposed by the government. Coon, saying that the government has not "gone far enough to eliminate loopholes that allow landlords to get around the government's temporary cap on rent increases," also made proposals to the provincial bill to address loopholes in this legislation, but faced rejection from the majority Progressive Conservatives.

In December 2023, St. Stephen mayor Allan MacEachern declared a state of emergency due to an increase in homelessness along with the recent death of a homeless person in the municipality, the declaration also accusing the provincial government of failing to offer housing and social services. Public Safety Minister Kris Austin terminated the declaration soon afterwards, likening it to car accidents by saying that "people die all the time in car accidents, and we do not declare state of emergencies for that." Austin also blamed "leftist agendas that are degrading our society" as well as the federal government for the issue.

In June 2024, the provincial government quietly made changes to its renting policies, allowing for landlords to make annual rent increases for up to 4.7% for the next year starting in July 2024; this increase exceeds the current inflation rate. Coon criticized this change, with Higgs being called out "caving to the lobbying of large corporate property owners."

Out-of-province activities

New Brunswick, unlike most provinces, allows political party funding from non-residents. In January 2024, Liberal and Green leaders Holt and Coon both made a promise to forbid New Brunswick political party donations from out-of-province sources in response to Higgs going to Alberta and British Columbia on a fundraising trip for his party.

Campaign

Progressive Conservative

In November 2023, the Progressive Conservatives hired Steve Outhouse as its campaign manager. Outhouse had previously served as chief of staff and as director of communications for federal Conservative cabinet ministers, and served as campaign manager for the re-election of the United Conservative Party in the 2023 Alberta general election. In April 2024, Outhouse was also hired as principal secretary to Premier Blaine Higgs, which is a taxpayer-funded position that will earn up to CA$124,656 during the six-month contract. The contract drew criticism from Green leader David Coon, who estimated the position's pay band as being at a much lower rate of CA$150,000–175,000 annually, as well as from Liberal MLA and former Progressive Conservative Robert Gauvin, who stated that it was "unfair that New Brunswick taxpayers are paying him for that," believing that "this contract should be cut and the money should be reimbursed." Higgs defended the value of the contract by reading extensively from Outhouse's resumé and stating that he comes with, "an extensive degree of credentials and relevant experience to what we experience as a government."

Jacques Poitras of CBC News described the Progressive Conservative campaign under Outhouse's contract as adopting "a more pointed, aggressive style of advertising against the opposition Liberals." The campaign particularly attacked Susan Holt while "trying to link her to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's carbon tax and other policies." Jeff Carr, a Progressive Conservative MLA who previously announced that he would not be seeking candidacy in the election, criticized a post his party made targeting a 2014 quote by Holt regarding "closing some schools in the province." Carr stated that the post omitted important context "for political gain (misleading the electorate)," calling it "disappointing."

Liberal

Throughout the months leading up to the election, Liberal leader Susan Holt started distancing herself from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau amongst attacks from the Progressive Conservatives attempting to link them together throughout the decline in popularity for Trudeau. Holt stated that "the New Brunswick Liberal Party is a separate entity from the federal party the prime minister leads."

When asked by Brunswick News about her summer campaign plans, Holt shared plans of touring around the province and stopping by each riding, with 207 "touchpoints" with "festivals and celebrations," while also focusing on her home riding.

Greens

In late 2023, Green Party leader David Coon stated that his goal was to "elect as many Green MLAs as possible." Additionally, Coon proposed that he would be open to the idea of collaborating with the Liberals to prevent Higgs from remaining in power if an early election results in him losing seat majority. Coon's negotiation proposal reflected his stance from the 2018 election when he was willing to talk with both parties, prior to the Progressive Conservatives securing the backing from the People's Alliance.

Coon, like Holt, was also asked by Brunswick News about his campaign plans for the summer; he shared that he, along with his deputies, Kevin Arseneau and Megan Mitton, are going to be "fanning out across the province, launching new candidates’ campaigns that haven’t been launched yet, and attending festivals and events, and generally holding our own events as well." Coon said that the largest issues that all Green candidates have noticeably heard are healthcare, along with "affordability and affordable housing," adding that "People want to see change. They want to see change that’s for the better, not change back." Coon also highlighted a lack in rural development in the province, mentioning that "there's plenty of talk about communities losing services" in rural areas.

Opinion polls

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	PC	Liberal	Green	PA	NDP	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling method	Lead
Narrative Research	May 30, 2024		34	37	13	1	13	±4.9 pp	400	telephone	3
Narrative Research	February 22, 2024		34	40	15	2	8	±4.9 pp	400	telephone	6
Narrative Research	November 27, 2023		35	41	10	2	13	±4.9 pp	400	telephone	6
Narrative Research	August 21, 2023		36	38	16	1	8	±4.9 pp	400	telephone	2
Narrative Research	May 17, 2023		34	34	19	2	10	±4.9 pp	400	telephone	0
Narrative Research	February 25, 2023		37	35	17	2	9	±4.6 pp	450	telephone	2
Leger	December 23, 2022		22	40	15	9	12	±4.4 pp	500	online	18
Narrative Research	November 27, 2022		30	39	18	2	10	±4.0 pp	611	telephone	9
Narrative Research	August 24, 2022		30	41	14	5	11	±4.2 pp	525	telephone	11
Susan Holt is elected leader of the Liberal Party (August 6, 2022)
Angus Reid	June 13, 2022		31	36	14	5	13	±6.0 pp	247	online	5
Narrative Research	May 19, 2022		34	34	17	4	9	±4.0 pp	607	telephone	0
Nanos Research	April 11, 2022		36.6	38.8	14.2	1.2	8.6	±4.8 pp	423	online/telephone	2.2
Both People's Alliance MLAs join the Progressive Conservatives, with Kris Austin announcing intention to de-register the party (March 30, 2022)
Angus Reid	March 15, 2022		31	32	15	13	9	±6.0 pp	251	online	1
Narrative Research	February 27, 2022		34	31	16	5	11	±4.2 pp	545	telephone	3
Angus Reid	January 10, 2022		26	37	16	10	8	±7.0 pp	216	online	11
MQO Research	December 14, 2021		29	36	16	5	11	±4.9 pp	400	telephone (rolling)	7
Narrative Research	November 24, 2021		28	38	14	5	13	±3.5 pp	800	telephone	10
Stratcom	November 6, 2021		20.5	39.8	17.9	12.0	-	±2.8 pp	1,184	IVR	19.3
Angus Reid	October 3, 2021		31	31	12	12	13	±2.0 pp	265	online	0
Narrative Research	August 17, 2021		33	29	22	5	11	±2.0 pp	604	telephone	4
Angus Reid	June 7, 2021		36	31	17	12	4	±2.0 pp	248	online	5
Narrative Research	May 31, 2021		39	28	18	6	8	±3.5 pp	800	telephone (rolling)	11
MQO Research	March 18, 2021		38	31	17	5	6	±4.9 pp	400	telephone (rolling)	7
Narrative Research	February 17, 2021		35	32	20	6	6	±3.5 pp	800	telephone (rolling)	3
Narrative Research	November 22, 2020		41	28	20	4	6	±3.5 pp	800	telephone (rolling)	13
Kevin Vickers resigns as Liberal Party leader; MLA for Dieppe Roger Melanson becomes interim leader (September 14, 2020)
Election 2020	September 14, 2020	HTML	39.3	34.4	15.2	9.2	1.7	—		—	4.9
Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link						Margin of error	Sample size	Polling method	Lead
			PC	Liberal	Green	PA	NDP

Candidates

Retiring incumbents

The following sitting MLAs have announced that they would not seek re-election:

Progressive Conservative

Liberal

Independent

Legend

• bold denotes cabinet minister, speaker or party leader
• † denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election or was defeated in nomination contest
• # denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district

Northern

Electoral district	Candidates												Incumbent
	Progressive Conservatives		Liberal		Green		PANB		NDP		Other
Restigouche West				Gilles LePage		Myriam Cormier								Gilles LePage
Restigouche East				Guy Arseneault						Daisy Petersen				Guy Arseneault Campbellton-Dalhousie
Belle-Baie-Belledune				Marco LeBlanc						Ty Boulay				Marco LeBlanc Restigouche-Chaleur
Bathurst				René Legacy		Robert Kryszko				Jeff Frenette				René Legacy Bathurst West-Beresford
Hautes-Terres-Nepisiguit				Luc Robichaud										Susan Holt# Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore
Caraquet				Isabelle Thériault										Isabelle Thériault
Shippagan-Les-Îles				Eric Mallet										Eric Mallet Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou
Tracadie				Keith Chiasson		Serge Brideau								Keith Chiasson Tracadie-Sheila

Miramichi

Electoral district	Candidates												Incumbent
	Progressive Conservatives		Liberal		Green		PANB		NDP		Other
Miramichi Bay-Neguac		Réjean Savoie		Sam Johnston										Réjean Savoie
Miramichi East		Michelle Conroy		Veronique Arsenault										Michelle Conroy Miramichi
Miramichi West		Mike Dawson		Mark Hambrook										Mike Dawson Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin

Southeastern

Electoral district	Candidates												Incumbent
	Progressive Conservatives		Liberal		Green		PANB		NDP		Other
Kent North		Carl Cosby		Pat Finnigan		Kevin Arseneau		Carole Boudreau						Kevin Arseneau
Beausoleil-Grand-Bouctouche-Kent				Benoît Bourque										Benoît Bourque Kent South
Shediac Bay-Dieppe				Robert Gauvin		Chantal Landry								Robert Gauvin
Shediac-Cap-Acadie				Jacques LeBlanc		Jean Bourgeois								Jacques LeBlanc Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé
Tantramar						Megan Mitton								Megan Mitton Memramcook-Tantramar
Dieppe-Memramcook						Jacques Giguère								Richard Losier† Dieppe
Moncton East		Paolo Andreetti		Alexandre Cédric Doucet										Daniel Allain†
Moncton Centre		David Melanson		Rob McKee						James Ryan				Rob McKee
Moncton South		Greg Turner		Claire Johnson						Rebecca Rogers				Greg Turner Moncton South
													Merged district
														Sherry Wilson# Moncton Southwest
Moncton Northwest		Ernie Steeves		Tania Sodhi		Ana Santana				Cyprien Okana				Ernie Steeves
Champdoré-Irishtown				Lyne Chantal Boudreau										New district
Riverview		Rob Weir				Sarah Lord								Bruce Fitch†
Albert-Riverview		Sherry Wilson		Dave Gauthro										Vacant Albert
Arcadia-Butternut Valley-Maple Hills		Don Monahan		Connie Larson		Brian Boucher								Ross Wetmore† Gagetown-Petitcodiac

Southern

Electoral district	Candidates												Incumbent
	Progressive Conservatives		Liberal		Green		PANB		NDP		Other
Sussex-Three Rivers		Tammy Scott-Wallace												Tammy Scott-Wallace Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
Hampton-Fundy-St. Martins		Faytene Grasseschi		John Herron		Laura Myers		Peter Graham						Vacant Hampton
Quispamsis		Blaine Higgs		Aaron Kennedy						Alex White				Blaine Higgs
Rothesay		Ted Flemming		Alyson Townsend		Zara MacKay-Boyce				Cindy Andrie				Ted Flemming
Saint John East		Glen Savoie		David Alston		Gerald Irish				Josh Floyd				Glen Savoie
Saint John Portland-Simonds		Paul Dempsey		John Dornan										Vacant Portland-Simonds
Saint John Harbour				David Hickey		Mariah Darling								Vacant
Saint John West-Lancaster		Kim Costain		Kate Wilcott		Joanna Killen								Dorothy Shephard† Saint John Lancaster
Kings Centre		Bill Oliver				Bruce Dryer				Nicholas Green				Bill Oliver
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John Lorneville		Ian Lee		Patty Borthwick										Andrea Anderson-Mason† Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West
Saint Croix		Kathy Bockus		Troy Lyons		Mark Allan Groleau				Bola Ademolu				Kathy Bockus

Capital Region

Electoral district	Candidates												Incumbent
	Progressive Conservatives		Liberal		Green		PANB		NDP		Other
Oromocto-Sunbury		Mary Wilson		Stephen Horsman		Tim Thompson								Mary Wilson Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton
Fredericton-Grand Lake		Kris Austin				Ken Washburn								Kris Austin
Fredericton-Lincoln		Daniel Chippin		Joni Leger		David Coon								David Coon Fredericton South
Fredericton South-Silverwood		Nicolle Carlin		Susan Holt		Simon Ouellette				Nicki Lyons-MacFarlane				New district
Fredericton North		Jill Green		Luke Randall		Anthea Plummer		Glen Davis		Matthew Stocek				Jill Green
Fredericton-York		Ryan Cullins		Tanya Whitney		Pam Allen-LeBlanc		Michael Broderick		Steven LaForest				Ryan Cullins
Hanwell-New Maryland		Judy Wilson-Shee				Susan Jonah		Kris Hurtubise						New district
Carleton-York		Richard Ames		Chris Duffie		Burt Folkins		Sterling Wright						Richard Ames

Upper River Valley

Electoral district	Candidates												Incumbent
	Progressive Conservatives		Liberal		Green		PANB		NDP		Other
Woodstock-Hartland		Bill Hogan												Bill Hogan Carleton
Carleton-Victoria		Margaret Johnson												Margaret Johnson
Grand Falls-Vallée-des-Rivières-Saint-Quentin				Chuck Chiasson										Chuck Chiasson Victoria-La Vallée
Edmundston-Vallée-des-Rivières		Roger Quimper		Jean-Claude D'Amours										Jean-Claude D'Amours Edmundston-Madawaska Centre
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston		Michel Morin		Francine Landry						Tanya Roberts				Francine Landry