Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.
Until 1943 non-Labor parties held the seat for all but three years. Since then, it has been consistently marginal, split between provincial territory that votes strongly for Labor and rural areas that vote equally strongly for the Liberals (and their predecessors) or the Nationals. However, it was in Labor hands for all but one term from 1943 to 1975.
Up to the 2016 election, Eden-Monaro was long regarded as Australia's most well-known "bellwether seat". From 1972 to 2013, Eden-Monaro was won by the party that also won the election. During this time, all its sitting members were defeated at the polls – none retired or resigned.
Liberal incumbent Peter Hendy was defeated by Labor's Mike Kelly at the 2016 election. Kelly had previously represented Eden-Monaro from 2007 to 2013. Kelly's 2016 victory made him the seat's first opposition MP elected since 1969; it was also the first time since then that the non-Labor parties had been in government without holding Eden-Monaro. The nation's new bellwether became the seat of Robertson – continually won by the party that also won government since the 1983 election. "Best" bellwether aside, ABCpsephologistAntony Green classed a total of eleven electorates as bellwethers in his 2016 election guide.
Labor’s Kristy McBain became the first woman to represent the division when she narrowly held the seat in the 2020 Eden-Monaro by-election. At the 2022 election, she held the seat with a large swing to her, boosting her two-party majority to eight percent, the strongest result in the seat for either side of politics since 1934.
Alluvial diagram for preference flows in the seat of Eden-Monaro in the 2022 federal election. Y indicates at what stage the winning candidate had over 50% of the votes and was declared the winner.
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Liberal
National
Labor
Greens
Australian Democrats
One Nation
Palmer United/United Australia Party
Nuclear Disarmament Party
Independent
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